Risk Map

Country risk

Companies that do business internationally rely on the stability of the business environment in the foreign country. Profits and investments can be vulnerable to adverse developments in this environment. These risks are broadly termed ‘country risk’. The level and change in country risk is, therefore, an important strategic and operational indicator for international companies.

Country risk covers a wide range of factors such as political developments, the risk of (armed) conflict and sovereign financial situation. These factors relate, for example, to regulatory changes, the risk of confiscation, civil unrest, war, currency controls and devaluations. Country risk takes into account a sovereign’s willingness and ability to pay and the impact of this on the ability of public or private entities to meet their cross-border payment obligations. Under our political risk cover contract, we provide cover against a subset of ‘country risk’ events. If you would like to learn more information about an individual market and their STAR rating, see our Country Reports. 
 

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Movement Focus
 

2026 Q1

Nicaragua: Nicaragua’s downgrade reflects a repressive political system, rising United States sanctions risks and new tariff threats. Restricted access to finance and trade uncertainty increase transfer and convertibility risks.

Moldova: Moldova’s upgrade follows a pro-European election outcome, closer integration with European Union markets and stable public finances. Trade reorientation supports exports and banking stability, easing payment risk despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Ghana: Ghana’s upgrade reflects International Monetary Fund-backed fiscal consolidation, near-completion of debt restructuring and stronger buffers. Improved growth and reserves reduce payment risk, though restructuring and fiscal pressures still constrain conditions.

2025 Q4

France: The political situation in France remains highly fragmented with three different governments since mid-2024, undermining the sovereign’s capacity to deliver much-needed fiscal consolidation. With ongoing uncertainty and high and rising government debt a downgrade is warranted.

Portugal: Portugal’s economy continues to outperform in the EU in terms of (primary) budget balance and economic growth. Although government debt remains high, its trend has been impressively downward and its structure is favorable.

Jamaica: Jamaica’s country risk profile continues to strengthen, supported by a decade-long commitment to fiscal discipline and structural reforms. Continued progress, even in the face of external shocks, reflects robust policy credibility and macroeconomic resilience.

2025 Q3

Côte d'Ivoire: Strong economic growth, declining government deficit and public debt, and robust access to international capital markets and IMF support underpin Côte d’Ivoire’s improved risk profile within the moderate risk category.

Guatemala: Prudent policymaking, despite traditionally high governability challenges, alongside steady GDP growth and accumulation of external buffers underpin Guatemala's strong – and proven – resilience. These mitigate Guatemala's significant exposure to US policy shifts.

Ecuador: Debt restructuring, policy adjustments and fiscal consolidation, supported by the IMF, are contributing to stronger government finances and external liquidity. Policy continuity has been maintained and governability has improved following recent elections.

2025 Q2

Albania: Economic growth in Albania is strong, driven by high tourism sector income and strong domestic demand. Favorable economic conditions have led to improved public finances. The EU accession negotiations has started actively giving momentum for reforms.

Israel: High security risks, the rising public debt ratio and volatile domestic and regional political situation in Israel warranted a downgrade of one notch. It remains in moderate-low risk category though with a resilient economy and strong external finances.

Turkey: Turkey has been upgraded to 6+ thanks to improved external buffers, reduced financial dollarization and more consistent monetary policymaking. The rating remains at the higher bound of the moderate-high risk category due to ongoing liquidity pressures and market volatility.

 

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The Atradius STAR rating

STAR is the Atradius in-house political risk rating. STAR stands for Sovereign Transfer and Arbitrary Risk and represents a rating system for assessing country risk. The STAR rating is a summary measure of political risk relevant to the Atradius trade credit insurance contract and explicitly targets the impact on public or private entities with cross-border payment obligations.

Broadly speaking, the default triggers under an Atradius Political Risk Policy are classed as either Sovereign Transfer or Arbitrary Risk.

The STAR rating runs on a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 represents the lowest risk and 10 the highest risk. The 10 rating steps are aggregated into five broad categories to allow their interpretation in terms of credit quality. Starting from the most benign part of the quality spectrum, these categories range from ‘Low Risk’ to ‘Very High Risk’.
 

Download STAR Rating Background Information

 

Disclaimer:

This map is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or advice as to particular transactions, investments or strategies in any way to any reader. Readers must make their own independent decisions, commercial or otherwise, regarding the information provided. While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is accurate to our best knowledge and belief at time of publication but it does not aim to predict future developments. All information in this report is provided ’as is’, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from its use, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In no event will Atradius, its related partnerships or corporations, or the partners, agents or employees thereof, be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages.