Publications

Thanks to the strong recovery seen since H2 of 2014 many of Italy’s car suppliers have registered increasing profit margins and an improvement of their financial strength.

Japanese automotive businesses´profit margins have generally improved, mainly due to higher sales in North America.

In Slovakia, payment behaviour is generally good with a low number of non-payment notificiations, and this is expected to remain unchanged in the coming months.

Payment behaviour in the Swedish automotive sector is quite stable, and insolvencies are not expected to increase in the coming months.

Thailand´s automotive sectors is characterised by high entry barriers as the players in the market are large multinationals with strong financials and good know-how.

Payment behaviour in the US automotive sector has been rather good over the past two years.

Economic growth in the resource-rich Brazil continues to remain under pressure due to a combination of a credit crunch, rising interest rates and weakening demand.

One in three businesses surveyed in Brazil, Canada, Mexico and the United States reported that around one-fifth of the value of their B2B receivables is more than 90 days overdue.

Inflation is expected to remain high in 2015, at around 7%, while the current account deficit is expected to remain at the same level as in 2014 (5.7% of GDP).

Growth is expected to accelerate further in 2015 and 2016, by 2.8% and 3.5% respectively, driven by continued robust domestic demand and increasing exports to the Eurozone.

The Polish economy is expected to benefit from low energy prices and the rebound in the Eurozone, with GDP expected to grow 3.5% in 2015, based on robust domestic demand and increasing exports.

Economic growth is expected to continue in 2015 and 2016, although at a slower pace: by 3.0% and 2.4% respectively.

Due to robust domestic demand and benign economic conditions in the Eurozone, Czech GDP is expected to grow 3.0% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016.

The impact of the Chinese stock market crunch of this summer and the renminbi devaluation should not be overestimated. The main long-term risk is an accelerating economic slowdown.

The tubular goods segment is hit hard by the end of the oil boom, with insolvencies expected to increase.

Decreasing profitability due to foreign exchange losses and rising insolvencies.

Higher domestic steel consumption, but exchange rate volatility is expected to cause more payment delays.

Lower construction growth and overcapacity affect the sector, but the outlook for 2016 has improved.

A rebound driven by construction recovery, but increased foreign competition affects businesses´ margins.

The outlook for the industry remains subdued, with many Smaller steel mills struggling with poor operating margins.

Land acquisition issues in setting up greenfield projects, delays in environmental clearances, logistics support and external financing remain major issues

German steel producers and distributors are facing structural challenges, as lower steel prices and competition from Asia hit margins.

Insolvencies have decreased in 2014 and are expected to level off in 2015. The insolvency level in this segment is quite low.

Competition in the sector is high, and there are clear signs of price wars as the industry is struggling with overcapacity and weaker demand.

Structural overcapacity in the industry had a negative effect on businesses´ profit margins in 2014, and this negative trend is expected to continue in 2015.

Atradius identifies the most likely outcome of the UK’s in-out referendum set for 2017 and the sectors and countries most vulnerable to Brexit.

In 2015, Australian business insolvencies are expected to increase slightly by 2% as economic growth slows down and the mining industry faces mounting troubles.

The insolvency outlook for 2015 has weakened and difficulties are expected to continue into 2016.

The sector benefits from higher machinery investments as the Japanese economic recovery is on track (GDP is expected to grow 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016 after a modest contraction in 2014).

In 2015 production is expected to increase at around 2%, the same level as in 2014.

The machinery sector in Brazil is being severely impacted by an economic downturn (Brazilian GDP is expected to contract 1.5% in 2015).

Payments in the Czech machinery sector take around 40 days, with ‘days sales outstanding’ (DSO) for smaller businesses of about 50 days.

Compared to other US industries the rate of insolvencies is low in the machinery sector, and it is expected that business failures will level off or even decrease slightly (by about 1%) in H2 of 2015.

The outlook for the machinery industry is promising, as the Italian economy is expected to grow 0.6% in 2015 and 0.9% in 2016 after two years of contraction.

The machinery sector should benefit from the economic rebound in France, with GDP forecast to grow 1.1% in 2015 (after 0.2% in 2014) and stronger growth in industrial production and exports.

China’s machinery sector has seen high overcapacity: profits of machinery businesses will be squeezed further by fierce competition, as companies have to offer lower prices to keep market shares.

The Swedish machinery sector has seen many positive developments over the past few years and currently benefits from higher global demand.

Hungary has become a key production base for automotive majors such as Audi, Daimler (Mercedes-Benz), Suzuki and General Motors.

Jordan’s economic growth is expected to accelerate from 3.1% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2015.

In 2015 and 2016 Egypt’s economy is expected to grow by more than 4%, as improved stability in the country will boost domestic demand.

Despite the UAE’s overall diversification, the lower oil price is expected to take its toll on economic growth.

Tunisia’s economy is expected to grow moderately in 2015 and 2016, supported by increased demand from the eurozone.

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is expected to slow down to 3.0% in 2015 following a growth of 3.6% in 2014.

An expected rebound in agriculture will lead to higher GDP growth in 2015, forecast to increase 4.6%. Growth is also sustained by increasing exports, mainly to the eurozone.

In 2015, Kuwait's economic growth is expected to decrease to 1.7% due to the lower oil price and decreased oil production.

Concerns in 2014 over an impending crisis in Russia were overblown. But insolvencies have increased and specific industries are affected badly by the ongoing recession.

Despite its growing economy, Japan faces major demographic challenges. There is an urgent need to make the labour market more flexible to achieve a sustainable rebound and boost economic performance.

After three years of contraction, Italy’s economy is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2015.

The UK economy expanded by 2.6% in 2014, the fastest pace of growth since 2007. While consumer spending was the main driver, real fixed investments also increased.

While exports, industrial production and investments are expected to decrease year-on-year in 2015, private consumption is expected to rise 1.1% in 2015.