The January 2019 edition of the Economic Update, presenting the current economic environment across the globe and the outlook by Atradius Economic Research.
The January 2019 edition of the Economic Update, presenting the current economic environment across the globe by Atradius Economic Research.
- Global – Global economic growth is estimated to have peaked in 2018 at 3.0% and to ease to 2.8% in 2019. Tightening global monetary conditions, fading US fiscal stimulus, and increased volatility in financial markets are driving the slowdown.
- Eurozone – GDP growth is likely to decelerate to 1.6% in 2019, as stronger import growth results in a negative contribution from net trade.
- Advanced Markets – Growth in the US is likely to lose some steam in 2019, as downside risks increase from trade and monetary policy. Growth in the UK is likely to recover somewhat in 2019, but remains vulnerable to Brexit developments.
- Emerging Markets – Growth is supported by solid global demand, but trade tensions between the US and China and policy rate hikes by the US central bank continue to cloud the growth outlook.
- Credit and Insolvencies – The global insolvency outlook remains benign, but the level of insolvencies is expected to stabilise near current levels in 2019.