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Access a snapshot of the credit risk situation and business performance of 14 major industries in your country. The forecast is based on the assessment of Atradius underwriters.
While the automotive insolvency level has been low compared to other industries in the past, an increase of up to 3% is expected in the coming 12 months.
Local-owned Tier 2 suppliers remain susceptible to commodity price changes and exchange rate volatility, with limited options to pass on higher prices.
Higher costs, reduced orders, price pressure and changes in the type of products demanded could put the finances of many smaller suppliers under stress.
The September 2019 edition of the Economic Update presents the current economic environment across the globe and the outlook by Atradius Economic Research
Private sector debt developments in the US and China probably won’t trigger an economic crisis but could deepen a downturn, possibly triggered by the bilateral trade war.
The repercussions of the trade dispute with the US have been limited so far, but several US-export dependent SMEs could fail should the dispute continue.
Due to the more difficult market environment and decreasing sales, we have recently downgraded the sector performance outlook from “Excellent” to “Good”.
In the medium- to long-term low-cost competitors from Asia and the Middle East could seriously challenge Singapore's export-oriented chemicals industry.
Despite further sales growth most businesses continue to operate on very tight margins due to fierce competition, while equity strength is below average.
An economic slowdown in China triggered by the Sino-US trade dispute would surely lead to lower demand for ICT exports to China and to other parts of Asia.
ICT continues to be characterised by stiff competition and cheap imports causing pricing pressures, especially for smaller IT resellers and distributors.
Payment experience over the past two years has been good and the level of protracted payments and insolvencies remains low compared to other industries.
World trade growth stagnated in Q1 amid the escalating trade war. While we expect some recovery in 2019, further escalation of the trade war could grind growth to a halt.
In 2019 Austrian economic growth is expected to decelerate after a robust performance in 2018, mainly due to weaker external demand and lower investment.
A potential downside risk to the economic performance could be the high household debt in case of sharp house price decreases and interest rate increases.
Household consumption is sustained by rising employment, higher wages and low interest rates, while lower financing costs support business investments.